Behind the Substack Hype: Where Things Actually Stand

What the first few months of 2026 revealed about the platform’s real direction, and how creators are adapting

If you’ve spent more than five minutes online lately, you know what my feed looks like right now. Everyone is buzzing about the same thing.

“Go build your Substack.”
“This is the early YouTube era.”
“The future is independent media.”

It reached a bit of a fever pitch a few days ago with Substack’s first-ever media summit in SoHo, New York. Looking at the coverage from afar, it felt less like a tech conference and more like a glitzy PR event—some even dubbed it a "Substack Coachella" (and not exactly as a compliment). You couldn't really learn much about Substack’s plans from the reports. Instead, the big takeaway was CEO Chris Best telling a room full of creators that they “deserve to get rich and to have fun.” But here’s the thing: away from all that glossy surface, the actual momentum around the platform is very real.

I’ve been tracking this space closely for a while now... I wrote a prediction piece last October, and followed it up in January when the TV app launched and sparked a ton of debate. I always find it fascinating to put the official announcements next to what’s actually happening on our dashboards.

So now that we’ve officially crossed into June, it felt like the perfect time to look past the event hype, check where things actually stand so far in 2026, and see where we are heading.

1. The writing platform held its ground (Thank god)

When Substack dropped its TV app back in January, the reaction in the comment sections was immediate. While opinions were mixed, the vast majority of writers were push-back heavy, clearly worried about the platform veering into video territory. The message was loud and clear: “Please don’t do this. This is not YouTube. Elevate the written word.”

Hamish McKenzie (the co-founder) responded publicly, arguing that this wasn’t about changing formats but expanding a business model. The idea was simple: the same subscription structure that works for writing should theoretically work for video, podcasts, and community. On paper, it makes sense.

But the reality of the past few months looks different.

Video didn’t take over. The feed remains fundamentally text-heavy, and the content that consistently drives engagement is still the written word. Even when Chris Best framed Substack’s mission at the SoHo summit as investing in “cultural infrastructure,” that’s not video-first terminology. That’s a nod to writing.

The platform tested something, read the room, and adjusted. That’s worth acknowledging. The temptation to chase YouTube-level engagement was massive, and they chose not to lose their soul. I think that single choice will define what Substack becomes in the next two years more than any feature rollout.

2. Notes became Substack’s social layer (And it actually works)

Last October, I predicted Notes would become the dominant growth engine here. That turned out to be spot on, but what I didn’t foresee was how it would split us, creators, into two completely different groups.

• Notes as a standalone social channel: We are seeing creators who barely publish traditional articles at all, yet by posting daily observations and quick reactions on Notes, their subscriber counts grow by thousands every month. For them, Substack functions almost entirely as a better, saner version of Twitter/X—social, fast, and discovery-driven, without the chaos.

• The traditional newsletter model: On the other end of the spectrum, many still use the platform purely as an email inbox—dropping long-form posts infrequently and rarely touching Notes. These tend to be creators who already built an audience elsewhere and just need a reliable delivery mechanism.

Both approaches work, but let’s be real: they are two fundamentally different products sharing the exact same dashboard.

What makes the Notes layer genuinely different from Instagram or LinkedIn is the algorithm. Substack’s own head of ML explained that their algorithm optimizes for subscriptions and payments, not mindless scroll time. That changes everything. It’s why real conversations happen in the comments here, people actually read, and engagement means something.

You can see this clearly in the type of content that actually wins here. AI-generated summaries, formulaic “5 things you need to know” growth hacks, and posts written for the algorithm instead of a real human being might get a quick spike in attention, but they quickly vanish. At the end of the day, nobody subscribes to a template. That’s just how the ecosystem is wired.

3. Substack is quietly building an all-in-one media infrastructure

Lately, I’ve seen a lot of creators complaining that Substack is focusing too much on "surface-level" updates—like custom highlights, new fonts, and visual design tweaks—while leaving core, backend functionalities a bit clunky.

I actually think Substack is playing this smart. By prioritizing the front-end first, they’ve made the platform highly customizable and genuinely enjoyable to use. Today, Substack homepages are so flexible that they can easily replace your standalone website or blog. And now, they are quietly shifting focus to the heavy-duty features.

Behind the scenes, bestselling creators are currently beta-testing subscriber tagging (hello, it’s me). Once rolled out, this will allow us to segment our lists, target specific groups, and send different content to different audiences. This is a massive deal.

The bigger picture here is being underestimated. Substack isn’t just a newsletter tool with extra features; it is gradually becoming the entire operating system for independent media. When you can run your website, email list, community, and podcast all from one dashboard, the game changes. If you’re still treating Substack as just a simple mailing list, you’re building on a much narrower foundation than what the platform is actually turning into.

4. The paid subscription fatigue is real

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room that the hype cycle likes to ignore. I want to be very direct here.

The pure, paid-subscription model is hitting some structural friction. Substack takes a flat 10% cut (plus Stripe fees), which really starts to hurt as you scale. On top of that, the setup for subscriber tiers is still pretty rigid—for instance, you can’t choose to offer an annual-only tier if that’s what your business model actually needs.

But the most significant shift is happening on the reader’s side. As Substack grows and attracts high-profile journalists and incredible writers, the overall quality of the platform has skyrocketed. Personally, I find myself wanting to support more and more publications. But everyone has a budget limit.

Lately, several readers who cancelled their paid subscriptions have left me notes explaining that they are simply rotating their paid subscriptions. They aren’t leaving because they’re unhappy; they’re just managing their monthly spend. They pay for a few publications for a few months, catch up on everything, cancel, and move to a different set of writers.

This creates a massive predictability problem. If you are building a business, you cannot safely rely on monthly subscribers as stable, recurring revenue. Despite Substack’s glossy PR telling creators they are all going to get rich, the reality of reader budgets means that a pure subscription model won’t sustain everyone.

This is exactly why treating Substack as just a subscription tollbooth is a mistake. The smartest creators are already adapting by using the platform to launch workshops, consulting, courses, and digital products. The paid subscription becomes just one layer of their business, not the whole game. In fact, some of the most financially successful creators here earn far more from these backend offers than from the “$5 a month” button.

Substack’s own marketing hasn’t fully caught up to this reality yet. While they are still heavily pushing the pure subscription dream, they will eventually need to introduce features that make it easier for creators to sell products, services, and broader memberships directly on the platform. The creators making a living here have already made this shift; now it’s time for the infrastructure to support it.

💡 Quick Pause: Is your Substack built on a solid foundation?

If you are feeling uncertain about how others actually perceive your publication, where you truly stand right now, or what your next strategic move should be, my Substack Audit was designed specifically for you.

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Where are we heading?

If I had to bet on where Substack is moving for the rest of 2026 and beyond, it comes down to four major shifts. The platform is no longer a passing trend; it is cementing itself as an unmissable media institution.

Here is what the next chapter looks like:

1. The “What’s your Substack?” moment

Having a Substack is about to become as common as having an Instagram account. I don’t mean Instagram in the sense of chasing algorithms or aesthetics, but in terms of ubiquity. It is quickly becoming the default personal infrastructure. Soon, when you meet someone serious about their business, creativity, or thoughts, it will be completely natural to ask: ”What’s your Substack?” It will be the place you point people to when they ask who you are and what you actually think.

2. Writing stays at the core (with better SEO)

Despite the brief panic over the TV app, the written word isn’t going anywhere. Substack knows its roots. Moving forward, we are going to see massive upgrades to the core newsletter functionality and, crucially, much better SEO infrastructure. They want to make sure your long-form pieces don’t just reach your current subscribers’ inboxes, but can easily be discovered by the broader web.

3. The rise of the personal brand

The era of Substack as just a casual, online diary for hobby writers is quietly fading into the background. The space is being overtaken by professionals and creators who are intentionally leveraging the platform to build a serious personal brand. It’s turning into a high-stakes ecosystem for reputation, network-building, and business growth.

4. The European expansion

Right now, Substack is still heavily American and Anglo-centric. That SoHo summit happened in New York for a reason, and the success stories they blast out are mostly US-based media insiders. But the tectonic plates are moving. While the US will likely maintain its majority, we are on the verge of a massive wave of European creators and readers moving onto the platform, localizing the ecosystem in a way we hasn’t seen before.

The ultimate proof of this shift comes from Italy. Selvaggia Lucarelli, one of the country’s most prominent journalists, recently returned to Substack to write her massive publication Vale Tutto (which already boasts 225,000 subscribers). Her reason for coming back after a three-year hiatus perfectly sums up everything we’ve been talking about: “Three years ago, it was a newsletter platform with a few community features. Today, it’s a true social network that rewards interaction, has a feed, has Notes, and has recommendation systems.”

The Bottom Line

Selvaggia is right. The Substack we are looking at today is fundamentally different from the simple newsletter tool we started with a few years ago. It’s a mature ecosystem that is forcing us to rethink how independent media operates.

The platforms that win in the long run are always the ones that align the incentives of the platform, the creator, and the reader. Substack isn’t perfect, and the friction points are real—whether it’s reader budget fatigue or rigid subscriber tiers. But the direction is clear.

If you are still waiting for the “perfect” time to treat your publication like a real business, or if you’re still hiding behind the algorithm of traditional social networks, the window is shrinking.

The infrastructure is ready. The readers are looking for substance. The question is no longer whether Substack can sustain a media business—it’s whether you are ready to build one.

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About the Author & How to Work Together

I’m Andi, a Substack Strategist based in Budapest. With 15 years of social media marketing experience, I help writers, solopreneurs, and industry experts cut through the noise and build sustainable, high-value publications that actually scale.

If you are ready to take your Substack seriously for the rest of 2026, here is how we can work together:

• Substack Audit: This is a deep, comprehensive dive into your publication. You’ll receive a 10–15 page personalized strategic roadmap breaking down your positioning, growth opportunities, and monetization strategy.

• Pocket Mentoring: Want a strategist in your corner while you build? This is my asynchronous mentoring support. You get direct access to me for strategic guidance, feedback, and hands-on advice as you navigate and grow your Substack—at your own pace, right from your pocket.